Originally Posted by
IADCAflyer
This is a question that is very hard to gauge and is skewed by individual observations. Ive been very, very successful on my upgrades this year - although it has been a close call on a few flights. I do fly a mix of routes (business/leisure), and typically out of DCA or paid F. Thinking back this year, my widest miss was IIRC SJU-MIA where I was probably #6 on the list.
Many others I've either made it at some point in the upgrade window or was #1 on the list.
My LPs are in the low 200,000 range for the year.
I'm not likely to re-qual for EXP this year unless I can convince SWMBO to send me to Israel again... my upgrade %-age this year has been really good unless I book close to departure. Sure that bumps me up the list ahead of lower tiers but most of the other EXPs by then have already been upgraded so I'm usually #4-5-6 on the list with 0/1 seat open.