Originally Posted by IADCAflyer

This is a question that is very hard to gauge and is skewed by individual observations. Ive been very, very successful on my upgrades this year - although it has been a close call on a few flights. I do fly a mix of routes (business/leisure), and typically out of DCA or paid F. Thinking back this year, my widest miss was IIRC SJU-MIA where I was probably #6 on the list.

Many others I've either made it at some point in the upgrade window or was #1 on the list.

My LPs are in the low 200,000 range for the year.