Originally Posted by
synzero
There is no way in hell Delta legal would let Delta give any other company veto power over how they structure their own FF program. Amex isn't the only bank they could go to with their business, they could choose lots of other banks. They don't need to sell control over their key profit center to get a credit card deal.
However your second suggestion seems possible: if Delta felt confident these crazy changes would drive MORE card spend they might have just said hey, Amex, we don't care about your objections, we're gonna do this anyway. My main point is that I highly doubt Amex would have the power to stop this even if they did see how disastrous it would be.
My personal guess is SOME Amex folks likely had some reservations about this whole thing but their objections were talked over by the Delta folks and Amex management might have gone along because the lounge access changes might have saved them some money in fees. But also: if flyers abandon Delta branded cards that doesn't mean Amex will lose all that spend as some of the loss will go to other Amex cards.
Yeah, it's all speculation and it's hard to get a reliable read from the outside. Obviously DL projects a lot of bravado in its business dealings, but IMHO it's just hard to tell whether DL really has the bargaining power to back it up in a circumstance like this one. Amex is their single most important non-A/C manufacturer business partner by a country mile, but it's difficult to say what the power dynamics look like there.