I give it less than 50/50 for October return. The planes to OGG are woefully underfilled right now, even with reduced schedule (not only DEN/ORD cancellations, but reduction out of SFO). UA seems happy to route traffic to Maui through west coast or HNL or outer islands right now w/o increasing Maui flights. I can't see UA upping capacity until holiday season. IMHO, maybe the best one could hope for is some additional weekend service.

Edit: responding to another thread, I see SFO-OGG is down to one flight Friday December 1 (9am). That's a large frequency reduction and suggests UA isn't optimistic on OGG rebound.