Originally Posted by RustyC
My own prediction is that the really nasty stuff on devaluations will happen in an industrywide wave around, oh, about the time the first baby boomers start to retire, perhaps just before. There are probably quite a few people sitting on fat mileage balances who figured on using them in retirement, when they would have time.
I am starting to think you're right, but the start date may be sooner than you think. As I mentioned in my earlier post, the UA bankruptcy has been far more brutal than I ever anticipated and it ain't over yet, folks. I could see UA coming out with a "New, Improved" Mileage Plus that whacks the heck out of certain benefits. And if they did, we might see Delta, AA and the rest, rather than run in to grab UA's customers, go along and match the cutbacks to try to save their own hides. This industry is in bad shape and none of them are really in good shape.
I have no actual basis for thinking this, other than my own suspicions. But it wouldn't surprise me at all.