If that were the likely scenario, understood, and I can just use miles for 1. Watching flights with that # of open first class seats frequently for my weekly flying, none clearing seems unlikely. My question I think still remains on whether splitting the res is beneficial.

Thanks,
Nathan

What's interesting is that there is at least 3 seats available in first every day from 9/27 to 10/20. Sounds like going 1/2/2 as 2 of the passengers are minors with the 1 being miles is the highest probability for clearing.