I really don’t understand why people keep saying this. For UA to go down DL’s road would require even larger changes to M+ than DL’s with SM as UA would have to radically expand the potential to earn PQD via CC spend. UA has always, it seems to me, emphasized actual flying — and spend on actual flying — more than AA/DL. It’s not set in stone of course, but why would they follow DL down the rabbit hole before the implications of the SM deval become clear?

My prediction is that UA holds (more or less) firm until next year. There’s just no reason to rush a response. No one knows what will happen with oil prices and their impact on travel demand in the near term, and UA may very well be able to pick up high-spend refugees, particularly in NYC, without lifting a finger.