Not claiming to have inside knowledge. But I can say that Alaska considers its traditional mileage earning program as an important differentiator. I think they will try to hold on to that as long as they can.

Will it lure someome to AS who is based in DTW? Of course not. But DL does apply considerable pressure in SEA and AS absolutely takes that seriously. And they know they can't compete solely on route network the way the Big 3 can out of their mega hubs. So does this help AS attract some DL flyers at their hubs? Definitely. Is it a lot? Depends on the routes they were relying on DL for.

Also, I want to highlight in this discussion that the exposure the Big 3 had with mileage run pax was exponentially worse than Alaska. For example, you used to be able to earn 16,000 to 22,000 EQMs on United for a single $636 roundtrip economy fare to SIN (you couldn't get that price CX if you are wondering). Five of those mileage runs got you Unitrd 1K for less than $3,200 per year (and fewer mileage runs were needed if you had other trips to Europe, transcons, or other domestic flying of course). I don't think I ever had to spend more than $3,600 to earn 1K under the old rules.

The problem was, 1K complimentary upgrades at hubs on domestic routes became extremely competitive (and even worse after Global Services was announced officially). And if you were Premier Executive or Premier? Forget it. And this was when you had to spend e500 upgrade coupons to pay for it lol (i.e. no unlimited upgrades).

Alaska doesn't have that issue to worry about (and notice that their EQM thresholds are lower than the Big 3 elite thresholds from even 25 years ago). Their average stage length is much lower and most AS itineraries earn closer to 1,000-5,000 EQMs. Not 16,000-22,000 on the lowest coach fare. And partner mileage runs are usually prohibitively expensive.

I'm sad to see airlines take the fun out of getting elite for less, and the minimum spend levels at DL certainly "sound" ridiculous, but I can't fault Delta for doing it. Upgrades are then #1 metric of frequent flyer satisfaction with elite programs. Period. All of the airlines I worked for had data to prove this.

At least their Silver Medallions might get an occasional domestic upgrade now. Most of the other elite benefits can be bought to some extent or obtained through a credit card (free bag, etc).

And yes, I agree Delta's lounge problems are more from Amex cards than anything else. I don't think the new visit limits will help as much as some may think. It certainly may make the Alaska Lounge+ membership more appealing to some pax at Alaska hubs. I have no doubt DL has the data to easily project what other cuts are needed to uncrowd their lounges...just saying that doesn't mean Amex was aligned to them.