So I did quite a test… I canceled our reservations for two people in the ward 1st and re-book in a word economy… I wanted to see if those seats with clear from the upgrade list with seven seats available in first class at T-45 hours.

After a few hours waiting on the upgrade list, these seats did not upgrade and so I decided to cancel the economy space and rebook back in first class.

At the same time I designated our third traveler as my upgrade companion, and she was put on the upgrade list.

Never cleared. First class on both segments BOS-ORD and ORD-STL left full. I was told she was 5th on the Waitlist ORD-STL, w 2 seats avail.

The conclusion is speed up to seven seats available in first class within 48 hours, they never cleared.

My conclusion is that there will almost always be 7+/- status elites ahead of me, now that domestic UGs are free and also avail on award tickets.

Bsck when stickers cost something per 500 mikes, people were judicious as to when and whether to upgrade. So there were fewer people on the list. No more.