Originally Posted by
Only ANA
I’ve had a roughly 95% success rate (54 out of 56) in the last 3 years or so for upgrades this way, though status does put me closer to the top of the waitlist.
When does it typically clear in your experience? I would book the ticket, but I am hesitant to transfer the miles over and waitlist if there is a high risk it won't clear LAX/TYO/LAX with no ANA status. Then I'll need to cancel the ticket, but have a bunch of orphaned miles stuck with ANA I'll need to use within 3 years.