FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - Hurricane Hilary Effect/Impact on Southern California
Old Aug 17, 2023 | 5:37 pm
  #12  
swag
FlyerTalk Evangelist
All eyes on you!
20 Years on Site
 
Join Date: May 2001
Location: MSY; 2-time FT Fantasy Football Champ, now in recovery.
Programs: AA lifetime GLD; UA Silver; Marriott LTTE; IHG Plat,
Posts: 14,811
Since many Californians don't have much experience with tropical weather, here are some reminders.

Don't focus on just the center line. Anywhere inside the cone may get the storm, and with 3+ days until landfall, the cone may shift.

When a storm approaches a coast at this sort of angle, it only takes a small shift, just a few degrees of angle, to move the landfall far away. Remember that just a couple of days before Hurricane Ian hit Ft Myers, it was forecast to come onshore near Tallahassee, almost 300 miles north. A slight westward shift on Hilary could move landfall from Tijuana to LA or even Santa Barbara.

Also, the right side of the storm always has the heavier winds. As Hilary moves up the coast, that means the land side of the storm gets it worse, while the water side continues to add fuel. The exact landfall location won't be the only place with tropical storm force winds; those could move up a large swath of the coast.
swag is offline