Originally Posted by
sdsearch
Remember, Marriott prices points primarily based on how many people redeem there. If more people are redeeming there than before, that will drive the points price up.
I can tell, because some suburban mid-tier hotels in my area that most people don't redeem at are still very low priced in points, even when their cash prices are high. They just slightly change with the prices, but when prices are lower they dip below 20k, while when prices are higher they're just a bit above 20k. While hotels in very popular areas require many points even when the prices are relatively low.
How useful it is to collect Marriott depends on how often you stay in places where most people don't redeem. If you do, then Marriott points can be very valuable at those places. If you're only going stay where everybody else redeems, they're not going to be of much use.
I believe you're right, having reached a similar conclusion after some research just recently. It started with some confusion as to why random roadside Fairfields and TownePlaces with cash prices just over $100 would have redemption rates in the 20-35K range. Once you plug in various dates and lengths of stay a pattern starts to emerge. In some cases it's more obvious, such as weekend "surges", and other times Google finds local events likely to draw crowds (and increased member redemptions). The latter is often indicated when many hotels in an area have similar rates. However bargains can be found in the mid-tiers, as you suggest. As a case in point, I'm holding a reservation for January at a suburban FS hotel in a major city for 16K points vs. the almost $300 cash rate for the same night. I recently redeemed at a similar location for 11.5K, although in fairness the hotel was not busy. While it saddens me to say, it is possible that we have collectively underestimated the convoluted process at work behind the scenes.