FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - Chance of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2023 Master Thread)
Old Aug 3, 2023 | 9:14 am
  #875  
EXP100
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Join Date: Feb 2022
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Posts: 1,422
Originally Posted by EricUSC
Will any AA phone agent tell me my position on the upgrade list before the 12 or 24 hour mark? I've tried asking that question before but the agent says she couldn't tell me even though this data is critical in my decision on whether or not I will buy up to first class.

I've been getting very attractive buy-up offers lately, but the offer always seems to disappear at the 24 hour mark. I've been getting pretty good at estimating whether or not my upgrade will clear through studying ExpertFlyer (I count empty J seats and occupied MCE seats), but there are edge cases where I'm tempted to buy-up but don't want to risk losing money on an upgrade that will clear anyways. Basically, I feel like some of these buy-up offers are a no-brainer for me if I didn't have status, but it's like gambling when I do have status, so I'd like to have the upgrade data available well before the 12 hour mark like what UA does.
There's no way to tell how many are ahead of you. I think you need to be strategic. Is this flight worth really sitting in F? What kind of Y seat do I have (for example if I have row 11 on the 321ceo I'm fine)? The thing is that if AA made that information available ahead of time many EXPs/PPs wouldn't take up the upgrade offer. Also, that list might shift from T-24 to T-12 as people make flight changes.
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