Originally Posted by
SPN Lifer
Apparently some of that mud stuck.
Thank you for the extremely informative Wikipedia link on U.S.-China air route authority.
The longer the
diplomatic differences between the two countries last, the more likely UA is to
increase flights to nearby locations like HKG & TPE.
1. my understanding of the "diplomatic differences" is
-CAAC wants to reinstate the latest (2019) version of the agreement just like it has done with other countries (e.g. France, Germany, Turkey), but the US wants to effectively turn the clock back ~15 years in order to protect its carriers from the inevitable massive influx of competition from Chinese carriers (as an aside, I'm disappointed that the DOT doesn't seem to care about consumers)
-Russia overflights -- I've mentioned previously that I believe CAAC would yield a bit on this point, but I suppose it's a good straw man for the DOT to justify doing nothing
2. More UA flights to HK & Taiwan
-adding too much capacity would depress O&D fares
-I haven't noticed any UA fare filings that include final legs to Mainland cities, though some probably exist
-as other countries continue to ramp up China service and harmonize schedules (e.g. AF and LH have good fares, but bad layovers for now), the HKG/TPE value proposition becomes less compelling
-since the diplomatic differences will certainly be resolved at some point (while we don't know "when", UA must have a better idea), it doesn't make sense for them to put a great deal of energy into this initiative