Originally Posted by
ATOBTTR
Since miles are more closely tied to revenue fares, you could always check Google Flights for cheaper destinations and then search award flights to the cheaper destinations to see how award flights compare to the revenue fares. If you have a DL AmEx that includes the 15% discount, you can find deals at 1.5 to 1.7 cents per mile.
Very quick reply: miles do not seem to be tied to fares departing Europe at all. Most awards that I see are 130/140K + ~$250US departing Europe to US, when available, even for routes that would be ~$700 cash; for Econ Light; often Main Cabin is unavailable and occasionally PS is offered at ~180K miles + tax.
None of these offers appears at all reasonable to me FWIW.
It appears there is no simple way to get any insight into the overall market.