Originally Posted by
Cambo
Hedging would not be possible, IF the party taking the hedging position would not lose on these deals (on average). So, cumulated, there will always be more losses when hedging, than wins.......
If you hedge with forward/futures/swaps the win/loss structure is exactly symmetric.
Say the spot and futures price of oil is $100. CX is afraid that oil prices will go up to 150in in a year time, so they buy futures at 100. That guarantees this price for future purchase.
On the other hand some producers are happy to sell at 100 to insure a good price for their future delivery.
Either side could "win" or "lose" in their desire to insure a known price for the future and that depends on what the spot price will be in a year time (it could be 50 or 150).
Hedging is a normal practice for all companies that have amounts to purchase/sell in the future.
Some believed that what CX did many years ago seemed to have been, in part, akin to speculating on fuel prices.
In 2018 CX still had 45% of its fuel purchases hedged. CX started to dramatically reduce its hedges by 2019 (down to 5% Q2 2020).
ALL airlines were hit by a double whammy due to covid (and for CX the 2019 protests). Traffic got dramatically reduced meaning much much less fuel was needed; and prices of fuel dropped.
It did induce a huge extraordinary loss for CX.
Referring endlessly to that episode seems a bit sterile to me.