I bet the offloading/reaccomodation system is looking at schedule only and does not account for the massive schedule padding these days or day-to-day variance from winds. So when the flight often arrives 30-45 mins earlier than expected, that expected misconnect no longer happens.

IMO no passenger, F, J, or Y, should be offloaded earlier than T-15, regardless of who thinks they will or wont make the flight. The passenger has a confirmed reservation and should be entitled to their seat until the last second. IDK how AA can keep a straight face when a passenger shows up with a boarding card before T-15 and be told it's no longer valid. The government should clarify IDB rules and make this an IDB.