I am deciding between two similarly priced flights. One has me leaving MAN at noon (MAN-YYZ, YYZ-LAX), arriving in LAX at 21:00. The second option is to take the train from Manchester to LHR via Euston/Paddington with a direct flight from LHR to LAX at 16:00. My hotel will be right across from Piccadily Station, and both options require me to leave the hotel around 9 am. I am leaning towards the LHR route because it combines a train and flight segment, which seems more enjoyable than two flight segments (flying in Y), and I would be happy to revisit the SQ lounge in LHR (access w/ *G). However, with all the endless labor actions, I am a bit leery that there may be a train disruption that would make it very difficult to get from Manchester to London in a reasonable amount of time. Since I will be in cattle class, breaking up the flight with a layover in Toronto may not be such a bad idea. The flight is on a Monday in late September.

Am I taking an unnecessary gamble with the LHR flight or is this a reasonable thing to do? Are there likely to be more strikes involving Avanti West Coast in the next few months?