(Mods, hope this is the correct thread for this question.) Are AmEx pop-ups considered to be accurate, relatively free of false negatives (or positives)? In other words, as an applicant who’s had many AmEx cards during the past 7 years, presuming correct name and address and SSN, if I apply for one of those cards via an application that contains LL and I do not get a pop-up, what the chances the SUB will subsequently be declined? I’ve not seen many datapoints one way or the other, I get the idea savvy CC SUB collectors are hesitant to test it.

Is the consensus still that there’s no significant downside to getting a pop-up and discontinuing the application?

Thank you.