I will only stay in a small, non-branded/boutique hotel on personal recommendation or if I don't have other options.

I've had way too much variation. One day you'll arrive to an independent hotel that costs like 50 eur per night and they take care of you better than most 5 stars, the next you stay in a 200 eur "independent luxury boutique hotel" and it's a dump with small rooms, illogical layout, no car access and staff who act like they're doing you a favor but only because they're better than you anyway. I'm really not a fan of the lottery.