If your flying for the next 12 months "won't normally net me Gold", then it's a no-brainer to go for Platinum; that means you will get Gold for the following year, regardless of how little you fly.

There really is no reason, in Flying Blue, to wish to "avoid" XPs - unless you (for a very particular and individual reason) wish to carefully manage the "reset" of your membership year by carefully controlling when you go up in status. This should normally not be a concern.