FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - [Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}
Old May 23, 2023 | 4:17 pm
  #7584  
Kacee
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Originally Posted by KB10
Hi. I've booked my family for UA 1 on June 12 purchasing economy and applying PP in attempt to upgrade to BZ. Can you help me understand my odds of getting upgraded and the various tools and tricks to figure out my best strategy? I am 1K
Originally Posted by exerda
I know we're a bit more than a week out, so it's still hard to say, but:
  • 6/2, IAD-SFO, UA 277 (753). J8 C8 D6 Z4 P3.
  • 6/2, SFO-IAD, UA 2247 (739). J8 C6 D4 Z0 P0. My guess is this is a hard one, but I am OK with a redeye in Y in a window seat.
Thoughts, particularly on the 753 morning flight that Friday? I'm booked in W. They're selling V still, so not much drying up of the economy buckets.
It's at the point where just predicting "no upgrade" will give something like 80% accuracy. So that's the obvious answer to all of these. But here goes . . .

UA1 for 1K plus family upgrading from Y? That's only going to happen if the flight is unusually lightly booked in J. Everyone in PE who's listed will have priority, and my guess is the available J seats will be 10 or less by T-24, which means odds are not good.

UA277 - this is probably the best odds. You'll get a better sense when you can see the list . . . if you're in the top 3, there's a shot. Though I could see this going to J2 prior to T-24, in which case it all falls apart.

UA2247. Flight is now J8C5DRZ1P0 (and Max9, not 739). The opening of Z is a positive. But it's a Friday night redeye, and this is still a longshot. I'd be watching for the buy-up (especially with Z now open).

Originally Posted by KB10
I am 1K with good spend on United Club card
Card spend is not relevant.
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