FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - AmEx Bonvoy Brilliant Luxury Card [General Discussion Thread]
Old May 9, 2023 | 10:22 pm
  #3047  
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Originally Posted by Polytonic
Pretty much any Hyatt redemption is automatically >2cpp and as much as I enjoy Marriott, I can't argue that the Hyatt program is technically better. If you'd rather put points toward business class awards, I've gotten good (~2.5cpp) value out of transfers to Aeroplan and Krisflyer without trying very hard. Most of the Chase partners overlap with Amex, so I find they're pretty much functionally equivalent in value (slight edge to Chase for Hyatt and United).
Originally Posted by eponymous_coward
Yeah, I don't quite get this, even if we assign $600 in value to an 85k FNC (which is pushing it IMO but OK), that's like 1% return on 60k of spend, on a card that is only returning 2x Marriott Rewards. You can literally buy MR for less than a penny a point several times during the year. You have to have a very very fanboy evaluation of MR value to think this is much of a play, which, I mean... sure, I guess, you do you, and I get you can get >1 cpp if you cherry pick redemptions well, but why not just get cashback on a card and buy points then?
Originally Posted by WasKnown
Yes, we’re advocating for you to get a different FNC IF you do not value the Marriott 85K FNC at $320. I guess that’s the real point of confusion here.

If you are questioning if paying $320 for an 85K FNC is worth it, why is spending $60K for a second 85K FNC worth it? Especially because this is not normal credit card spend but rather spend that costs a fee ($900 in fees per your estimates). I don’t understand the logic here.
Thank you all for the thoughtful answers and lots of math. In fact I am currently able to buy Marriott points at 0.83 cents per point.

In terms of my questioning the increased fee and the new cert -- that was really me thinking out loud. I appreciate the feedback and it seems to me that the 85k FNA is worth the incremental AF on the Brilliant card, assuming I am able to actually use it at face value. I guess I'll keep the card.

I put certain of my organic spend on my Brilliant card for the Amex benefits I mentioned previously (e.g. insurance) in addition to the Marriott points. This is spend that would not otherwise earn any category bonus with any other program. I'm quite happy with the Amex relationship and what I'm getting out of it, and the ease of accessing the benefits which have given me substantial value not only in money recovered but also in savings of time and aggravation vs. having to deal with how other banks handle these benefits (and I have tried). When it comes to this (let's call it "base") spend, I'm not willing to give it to another bank and will keep it with Amex. I'm not trying to convince anyone that this is the right thing to do, and certainly many people might disagree with my position here based on their circumstances and how they value their time, money and points, but I'm comfortable with it. So I either stick with Marriott, or put this spend to Hilton, Delta or MR. I value 2 Marriott points more than 3 Hilton points and more than 1 MR point and more than 1 DL mile, hence the Brilliant card it is for the "base" spend.

Now we have the question of the additional spend and what to do with it. Everyone has been looking at me spending $60k on Brilliant and saying how that's a terrible value, but you can't look at it that way. Assume there's a base $30k spend that's going there anyway (see above), and what I'm dealing with here is an extra $30k. This spend also would not earn any category bonuses, and at the end of the day I don't feel strongly about which bank gets it. Currently it is coming directly out of my bank account -- so no cost to me and no points earned. But, it's slightly annoying because I have no control over when it comes out of my bank account and have to keep an eye on timing and running balance. So my thought was -- what if I put this spend on a credit card instead? I've looked at this many time before, and have always come to the conclusion that the points I would earn, whether just cash back or various award points, would not be worth the incremental cost of putting this spend on a credit card. But then it hit me that the Brilliant card now has this new earned choice FNC, and I started recalculating, because while I would never hit $60k on the Brilliant organically, this extra spend could just get me there. My primary goal here is to consolidate my spend so that I have more control over when the money leaves my bank account in a way that either doesn't cost me anything (or very little) or maybe actually earns a return. I very much appreciate the suggestion to go the Hilton route, and I need to look into that more carefully.

So here's how I'm looking at it, and please tell me if my math is totally wrong or I'm missing something very obvious (I'm not looking to churn cards every year for the sign-up bonuses -- it's not worth the hassle to me):

I have $30k/year that currently doesn't go on any credit card. I could put it on a credit card at an approximate out-of-pocket cost of $900. How do I recoup the $900?

With the Brilliant card I get 60k Marriott points and, assuming the extra $30k gets me to the $60k threshold, an 85k FNA. At a 0.6c/point valuation that was given by some of you, that's a face value of $870, so basically a wash, with an opportunity to get a better value. I know some of you are saying there's a cheaper way to get the 85k FNA (e.g. with another Brilliant), but I am not looking at it that way because that would imply organic spend, not this additional spend I'm dealing with.

With the Surpass card it seems at $15k I could get a FNA that has no point limit on it, plus 45k points. So with two Surpass cards I'm looking at 90k points and 2 FNAs, but $190 in combined AF, making my cost $1,090. Given Hilton's redemption rates let's assume the points and two FNAs are good for 3-4 nights at a hotel, so the hotel would have to cost $272-$363/night to make it worthwhile. This is a fairly reasonable rate, I think. So, basically a wash, with an opportunity to get a better value.

With the Aspire I only get the 90k points for the extra spend (because the threshold for the second FNA is $60k) so assuming I can squeeze two nights out of those 90k points, those nights had better be worth at least $450/each. Doable, but harder to achieve.

If I go the Chase UR route on the FU, I get 45k points. Assuming I milk it and get 2c/point redemption value, I'm at $900. But in order to get this value out of it I have to play with programs I don't normally deal with (e.g. Hyatt, etc.). There's an extra hassle component to consider.

If I go the Amex MR route, that's 30k MR. The best value I've personally had with MR is transferring to Delta, so that's 30k miles. Worth a lot less than $900 -- totally not a good idea.

If go the BoA route on my Premium Rewards Visa card, I get 78,750 points (given my earn rate). That's a face value of $787. Now rather than being a wash, my cost is $113. If I had the Elite card and put those points towards their travel center, that's worth $945 in travel. So I earn $45 but I have to use the BoA travel center to do so.

Are there other options I should be looking at, given the programs that I participate in?
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