Originally Posted by boat stuck

Again, I disagree. Since Trump started the trade war half a decade ago, China has not acquiesced to any US demands despite constantly escalating US pressure. China's response to US bans and sanctions has been finding substitute products and alternative markets, even if there's short term loss of profit. There's no reason to think it'll be any different in this case--an unilateral decision by the US to ban some of China's flights, as currently flown, will be met with reciprocal retaliation, not capitulation. Chinese airlines will redeploy their jets to alternative, less profitable destinations, and that'll be that. CAAC isn't going to run back to US DOT in a month waving a white flag.

If a ban happens, there will be zero direct US-China flights for a long time. Cf. tarriffs, Chengdu/Houston consulates.