Originally Posted by boat stuck

I disagree with this prediction. I don't think it matters, from China's point of view, whether the US is targeting just Chinese airlines, or China+India+ME3. China will see this as another attempt by the US to impose unilateral restrictions on Chinese businesses for geopolitical reasons. Since Trump started the trade war, China has not acquiesced to any US demands despite constantly escalating US pressure. There's no reason to think it'll be any different in this case--an unilateral decision by the US to ban some of China's flights, as currently flown, will be met with reciprocal retaliation, not capitulation.

Honestly, I think this type of mentality has been a significant contributor to the current dismal state of US-China relations. A lot of Americans--even those who are knowledgeable about China and are acting in good faith--seem to think that, if China won't agree to something though negotiation, China can be made to do that thing by unilateral American force. No, it never worked like that, and definitely not now. Bans and sanctions will lead to counter-bans and counter-sanctions and decoupling (and if that's the desired end state, sure, keep going). But bans and sanctions aren't going to make China to submit to US demands after negotiations have failed.