Originally Posted by
narvik
Me too, but I doubt they will, at least not for MANY years.
Those super low prices were an indication that there was an oversupply of flights, and the airlines are now in a great position [for themselves] to not let that happen any time soon.
I'd settle for resumption of direct flights from various locations in the US --> various locations in China, at a reasonable price.
What is reasonable?
Well, to me it would be something like this for discount fares: ~$1100 R/T in E, ~$1700 R/T in PE, and ~$3600 R/T in J.
"Oversupply" has the same negative connotations that I used to hear among lobbyist friends in DC (e.g. "Hyundai is dumping those things"). Whether or not the term is applicable in any given case, consumers always seem to benefit.
If Sichuan Airlines is able to fly HGH-LAX again, they may well do so. The price wouldn't be $400 RT this time around, but they would definitely undercut United by a significant margin...without flying over Russia. But, at least United would be in a position to fight back. American and Delta, by contrast, are going into this battle with severely clipped wings, and they comprise 2/3 of the DOT's influencers (if we ignore consumers).
From what I can tell, the Russia issue is a red herring. MU isn't going to voluntarily lengthen its flagship route by 3 hours westbound, but would do so if compelled by law. Similarly, United could swing EWR-PVG without flying over Russia (e.g. check out the range specs of its planes).
Beijing routes are a little more problematic because many optimal flight paths utilize Russia in both directions. That being said, Russia was commonly avoided for 20+ years after KE007.
If PEK-NYC proves to be impossible without Russia, so be it. Maybe we'd get more SFO and LAX...annoying for those of us with east coast origins/destinations, but not the end of the world.