I guess one of the known-unknowns here is how prevalent the cancellations will be and how much havoc it'll cause for them.

They'll probably see a lot, as some people treat it like an all-you-can-eat buffet they paid a lot of money for, and some will book too much (like taking too much food) and not get to it all. They'd have a huge problem with this if their infrequent-flying "bus crowd" got into it, but I think the upfront money required will keep a lot of them away from it.

They do overbook, though. I was in Orlando this week and at the gate next to mine they announced they were oversold (to Philly, I think) and were offering a hotel and $1,000 voucher for volunteers (who'd have to stay overnight). Which is kind of a cruel joke given all that the voucher doesn't cover - the hotel could be the most valuable part of it. OTOH, I once got a hotel out of 'em late night in LAS that did NOT have an airport shuttle, so ya might run into something like that as well.

If they get tons of GW cancellations it might make 'em overbook more, which could cause a mess some of the time if they miscalculate.