Adding data point. Booked a RT J award from NRT to TPE late Feb for departure late Apr. One leg was confirmed in late Feb and the other finally confirmed today (with about 2 weeks left to departure).

The interesting thing is I happened to log in today to check on the status and it did change from "Waitlist" to "Your booking has been changed, please contact our reservation center". Though I wasn't sure how long it's been like that. No emails. No calls. Apparently, according to the agent I spoke to, I had to call in to confirm that I still want to fly that leg before the status is changed "Confirmed".