If you have faith in AA upgrades then more power to you. Over hundreds of flights over the last 10 years with various routes and times the % speaks for itself for me. My SO was also EXP with less flights and had similar success. With both of us being 100k the only annoyance is having to split reservations. Heck I’m even able to clear transcon, Hawaii and Seattle flights with regularity. Now of course if I fly AS to/from Seattle on a peak holiday weekend probably not going to happen, but same with AA and their hubs or premium routes. Sheer number of elites on AA is so much higher.