I recently re-gained MVP status. In my previous experience as an MVP, unlike other airlines' entry-level status it is possible to get upgraded to first as an MVP, but not super common (and obviously you're not going to have much like if you're on a SEA-route).

Given that, I was trying to figure out if there's some flights where you're going to have better odds than others. I'm assuming things like Sunday afternoon flights and Thursday night flights are going to be harder than midweek flights. Is the best way to get a sense of this to just look at the flight status on flights within 24 hours (or even less) to departure to see how big the wait list is/how many people have cleared/how many first class seats are still for sale?

For example, looking at these two flights:

Flight 27, about 3 hours from departure:

Flight 27 seatmap

Seatmap shows no first class seats for sale, only middles in premium and even almost all the "preferred" seating gone.

Likewise, the flight status looks like this:


Flight 27 upgrade list

Looks like no one is likely going to get upgraded here -- they'll all be "SHU/T" out for upgrades



However if we look at another flight, Flight 41, about 6 hours prior to departure, the seatmap looks like this:


Flight 41 seat map

Four first class seats still for sale within 6 hours of departure. And the status page's upgrade list looks like this:


Flight 41 upgrade list

That looks to me like there's no one on the upgrade list and it is still listing 3 first class seats available. Does that really mean that there's no one eligible for upgrades on this flight? Or does the list not show people who've already cleared? Or maybe it's just glitchy Does this mean an MVP should have no problem clearing if they were to book this at the last minute?

Be interesting to see if any pattern emerges, since I'm probably not willing to only book last minute flights to improve my upgrade odds, ha.