General Question about what certificate one receives when downgrading?

In this instance, when one has the Brilliant card for the last year or so and you are levied the new annual fee of $650 and you decide to thereupon immediately decide to downgrade (not cancel) the card to the $95 fee card, and therefore not pay the new $650 annual fee, what certificate does one receive in about 2 months time?

Is it the 85K certificate - I think unlikely.
Is it the 50K certificate - I think this is the most likely outcome as you had the Brilliant card when it was offering 50K certs, or
Is it the 35K certificate - This is the annual certificate for the $95 card.

Therefore, does the card you have at the time of the certificate issuance control which certificate you get, or is it the certificate that you were to receive once you were sent the demand for the annual fee -- keeping in mind that often one's anniversary date for signing up for the card usually precedes the date the annual fee for the card is levied, let alone the date of payment due.

Of course, if one were to hold the card until one receives the higher denominated certificate and then downgrades (not cancels) the card it is obvious, but must one wait the approximate 2 months -- and pay the higher monthly card charge imposed, or can one downgrade sooner and still get a certificate higher than the now downgraded card offers?

Any experiences with respect to AMEX Marriott or AMEX Hilton certificates would be appreciated!

Of course, with Chase, you immediately receive your hotel certificate on your anniversary date (whether or not that is the same date that you are levied your annual fee).

Thus it is easy as to predict just what certificate you will receive from Chase, but with AMEX, since you have to wait approximately 2 additional months, there's the rub.