It's hard to tell. I'd give it a couple of days. I've had this issue a few times. The problem last time was that the stay was in June and it was already April and no word from the Hampton about not being open, and Dublin hotel room rates were climbing quickly. As it was, the points rate at the Hilton had climbed. I now know to not rely on things opening on time. It's a big gamble in an expensive market like Madrid or Dublin.

As an aside, I was looking at rates in Madrid in early September and they were just outrageous, but really nice VRBO properties were half the price. We have a beautiful 2 bedroom apartment in Plaza Mayor for a weekend for around $280 a night. A much better deal than getting two hotel rooms.

I was looking for a quick night in October at the airport and the Hilton rates were about $400 or 40,000 points. I'm not sure why they are so high that week, but a lot of places were sold out. I will call this my best Hilton redemption at 1 penny a point.

Anyway, if you can't find a decent hotel rate to replace that stay in Madrid, it seems to be a place where VRBO's are much cheaper than hotels. Good luck.