If cash rates come back to Earth maybe the points prices will too.
They are definitely starting to, I think it was mainly due to heavy summer travel in 2022. As inflation rises people are spending less and less. It often becomes more favorable to just buy points for those stays and redeem those. As that happens more the ADR lowers because the hotel wants paid guests.
So yeah I see many properties dropping back next year.
Hyatt Regency Orange County, Hyatt Regency Long Beach and Hyatt Centric Long Beach definitely have no business as a Cat 4, Andaz San Diego which has an huge homeless presence literally at the front door has no business as a Cat 5 and HP Moab has no place as a Cat 5.