My wife and I were on a PDX-EWR round trip this week. 26 elites on the waitlist going and 28 coming back. We are 75k and was 7/7 & 8/9 on the list 24 hrs out. 4 seats in 1st available at 24 hrs for both flights. All 4 seats filled and we moved to 3/4 on the list. Sat next to 1/2 on the list who were 100k on the way back. That means there were at least six 100k people on the list. We have had about 70-80% upgraded flights in the past. Next year there may be less elites with no fast track.