Agree on points above. Schedule is likely to change and since you aren't horribly upset with your current flights, I'd probably roll the dice on getting a free change out of it. What you have may not be the perfect flight but it's certainly doable if there are no changes and you end up stuck with it.

On the other hand, if $490 is pocket change to you, I'd go for it to 1) not have to connect, 2) have a relatively similar flight duration, and 3) have MCE the full way.