metallo

I highly doubt that any frontline phone agents have actual knowledge of when 2023 CK invites will be released. I wouldn't rely on any of these projections and can only assume it will be sometime before 3/31, perhaps closer to 3/1 than 3/31. For those of you inquiring with phone agents, consider that they may just be making up an answer to get you off the phone. Even if they did know, I doubt they'd be authorized to disclose that information to customers. Everything to do with the CK selection process has always been fairly secretive.

That said, we do have historical trends that can be reviewed, and much of that information is actually right here on FT! I looked back through old posts here at the last "normal" CK qualifying year, and invites were sent out in early December 2019 for 2020 CK status. That's more in line with what I remember from reading through the CK threads over the years -- invites seemed to be released a bit before the new membership year, so it's interesting they've waited so long this year.

I did previously wonder about the strategy of making the announcement in advance of the qualifying year ending (even just a month or so in advance), because that could potentially reduce motivation to continue spending on AA for the prospect of achieving CK the following year. For example, If they'd announced CK invites for 2023 in late January or early February, there may have been passengers who otherwise felt they were on the bubble and were willing to spend say an extra $5-10k on AA to increase their chances, but once a decision is made (whether yea or nay), they could suddenly just shift that spend to any other airline that is more convenient. Waiting until the last minute does seem to be the smartest strategy for AA.