Our stay in SYD is during Vivid, though at the tail end (12 June - 15 June). So it would seem like that decreases the odds of a complimentary upgrade to a view.

That said... I'm leaning towards making a booking for a standard room and we'll see how things go. Worst case scenario, we enjoy the view from the pool and restaurant, and walk out at night to see the show along the waterfront. I'm fine doing that to save $225 per night. One of the three days of our stay is classified as "off peak" on the points calendar, so I have to think there's at least a chance they won't be fully at capacity.