well, trhe reason I am trying to get a bigger sample size is because I want to try to figure it out. I was SWU waitlisted once, got offered PE, took it, had a boarding pass that said "business" and a PE seat - but no SWU was pulled. I have also just seen it on online check in. I am trying to figure out when it happens by collecting more data points. I should edit my initial post - I guess if AA or partner flight number would also be interesting