Originally Posted by
UncleLeo
First time SWU user here. Successfully upgraded our outbound flight to Europe (BA metal), but the return flight on April 2 (AA metal) remains an open question. This is a 787-8, which only has 20 seats in J—7 of which are currently selected per Expert Flyer. Upgrade availability on EF currently showing C0 and J7. Assuming things stay this way between now and March 30, I guess we'll have to make a judgment call a few days before our flight on whether to: (i) roll the dice and get put on the upgrade waitlist; vs. (ii) just taking the 30K miles as my final loyalty choice reward and flying home in MCE. I estimate my 12-month rolling LPs will be ~180K at the time upgrades are processed. Not anticipating any other international travel in the near-term. Against that backdrop, any insights on how we should go about making this decision? As I said, first time SWU user here and I've read reports from others that range from "almost never" clear to "almost always" clear.
Definitely wait until the last moment (likely before 03/30 reward choice deadline) as you never know if those J seats don't get booked and take the risk on the SWU. I would also suggest taking looking at flight schedule and remaining seats available the week before and the days before your flight before you make your reward choice. If it's a true 50/50 at that point, personally, I would just take the guaranteed 30k miles
if I knew I wasn't going to do anymore international travel in the next ~15 months because I value the flight home less as I'll be sleeping in my own bed that night anyways, and MCE isn't that bad on a 787. If there is a 30-50% chance I'd fly in the next 15 months and could use the SWU, I'd take the SWU. A guaranteed ~$300 vs. possible $8k in international upgrade to J savings is worth the risk for me.