This is definitely a newbie question, but is there any way to figure out the odds of my mileage award upgrade clearing? I did the 15,000 miles + $75 and can see it is requested but was told I would be waitlisted for it. The flight is AA2634 on 3/17, OMA-PHX. I am traveling with my partner and he got a good deal on a paid upgrade, but I am holding out to see if I can get it this way rather than paying cash for it (or just flying economy). How long should I wait..?