Originally Posted by
MegatopLover
FWIW, my usual hotel in Tokyo, which happens to be a 5* place, now has at least double the rates I was looking at for a May 2020 trip that didn’t happen due to covid.
I’d sure consider paying now to lock in today’s exchange rate. Come to think of it, I should email them and pay now. 130:1 is damn good. By paying now, I could save quite a few dollars if the exchange moves as I expect it to between now and our trip in October.
I'm much less concerned about the exchange rate and more that the cash rate in yen would increase substantially. Within the past 30 years, the yen has been between 80 and 150, so unless it's going to break multi-decade ranges, the exchange rate can't make the dollar rate go up by more than ~1.5x between now and the actual date of the trip (which admittedly for me is much closer than for you). However, looking at a small selection of random hotels, the highest rate on their calendar is more than double their lowest rate, so if they push up the rate in yen as the date gets closer, that will likely have far more of an effect on the total cost in dollars. Also, I don't think I can really predict the trajectory of the JPY/USD exchange rate, while changes in hotel rate as you get closer to the date of stay are more predictable (as evidenced by previous posts).
Btw, if you are able to accurately predict the trajectory of exchange rates, there's far more money to be made from that prediction than pre-paying hotels, even if you have a long stay in suite at the FS
