Yeah exactly. My experience with Amex on other offers e.g. Saks $50, specific store spend bonuses etc. is that Amex sometimes catches returns etc. and claws credits back but more often than not does not catch them, esp if the return amount is slightly different or there is a long gap between purchase and return.

For the FHR $200 it seems like they are more 100% on the ball with catching cancellations and clawing credits back but curious if they might miss doing that on a cancelled card.