FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - [Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}
Old Dec 29, 2022 | 8:55 am
  #6921  
jsloan
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Originally Posted by Ldrldr
Hello - Hoping to get some perspective on chances of the following PlusPoints waitlist upgrade to business request:
2 passages - 1 Plat, 1 No status; RT $900 per person

Jan 6: SFO-MUC; Fare V; Inventory 28; Open seats 13

Jan 22: MUC-SFO; Fare W; Inventory 35; Open seats 22

I would greatly appreciate any views on likelihood the upgrade will clear, relative break points for buying the upgrade (currently listed at >$1000 each way per person so not a great deal), and any other context/markers/thresholds I should consider or watch for as the date approaches. Thanks!
Virtually zero chance on the outbound. It looks like you're adding up the inventory columns for J / C / D / Z / P, but that's not the way it works. The inventory is J7, meaning that they're only willing to sell 7 more seats. All of the other buckets are subsets of J; they don't add to it. My guess would be that Premium Plus is oversold -- which happens a lot -- and all of those passengers will have upgrade priority over you.

Slim, but nonzero chance on the return. It looks better now, but with an additional two weeks for them to sell tickets, inventory can tighten up dramatically.
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