i think each post above shows what a crap shoot things are. i spent the last two weeks doing LHR-LIN-LHR-VCE-LHR-JFK-LHR-VLC. i had to check one bag each time, but for each part of the journey i ensured i had the bare minimum of clothing needed in my carry on just in case. i will probably shoot myself in the foot saying that my bag arrived every time.
most shockingly the bags on the JFK-LHR flight were in the hall before i was.