Nexus renewal data point (my first renewal):
January 2021: Applied for renewal 364 days in advance of expiration
October 2021: Conditional approval received. Interview required for renewal. Didn't schedule one
January 2022: Card reached expiration (PreCheck / GE still worked dozens of times after this with no issue).
December 3, 2022: Full approval e-mail received out of the blue (again - no interview, which was great!)
December 16, 2022: Card received in the mail. Card valid until January 2027 (5 years following expiration date of prior card)