The six week guide worked better before the pandemic, and was essentially the point before business travel would start to be booked. Those who booked well before would have "must do" dates associated with school holidays, weddings and other fixed dates, and these passengers who buy at the first opportumity, pay a lot for the privilege, before market forces can possibly drive down fares. Now we are in a different logic with high levels of personal / F&F travel and lower levels of business travel. This being BAH brings its own dynamics.

BA will do Sales on a regular basis, and usually there is a good one announced at a point when few business travellers can take advantage of those fares, so for example announced on say 22 December for bookings made before 3 January.

Ultimately it's pure crystal ball stuff, and you really have to go on a mix of news and information to reach a decision. No-one wants to be fleeced but if you are paying around median fare levels then that's not happening, even if it's not a full bargain fare. Bargain fares are best left to opportunistic travel anyway.