FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - Issues with Aeroplan eStore operated by RewardOps
Old Nov 25, 2022 | 5:03 pm
  #39  
Adam Smith
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Originally Posted by FlY2XS
But 14-20pt/$ is hundreds of dollars better than Rakuten standard , or even the 10% Black Friday promo for a $1k spend. It makes the gamble worth considering.
Is it? I value Aeroplan points at about 1 cent for acquisition/opportunity cost purposes. So 14-20 points per dollar is 14-20%. But there seem to be three possible outcomes, based on the posts in this thread: (1) points post properly, (2) points don't properly, leading to significant effort invested in rectifying the problem, and either (a) eventually getting some or all of the points after much time spent dealing with Aeroplan (or RewardOps?), and a considerable length of time since the purchase, or (b) not getting the points at all.

It seems the probability of (2) is pretty high. How much do you value your time? On a $10,000 purchase, the extra 4-10% from Aeroplan is worth $400-1,000. What's the probability that you waste a huge amount of time pursuing those points, possibly unsuccessfully? Because in (2)(a), you spend a bunch of time getting your few dollars of points (hypothetically, spend 3 hours cumulatively, value it at $100/hour, you spent $300 to get your $400-1,000 of extra points, so net value of $100-$300 vs the $1,000 of guaranteed value on the Rakuten 10%), and in (2)(b), you waste a bunch of time and never even get the points (spend 3 hours, get 0 points, your net value is -$300, vs the $1,000 of guaranteed points). Your time may be worth less or more, but I imagine most purchases are well under $10,000, meaning the potential rewards that you're chasing with your time are even less.

I never use the store because of all the negative reports in this thread, so I don't know exactly how to build out that probability tree (if the points post fine 99% of the time, those downside cases don't matter much; if there's a 50/50 chance of getting the points at all, it's huge), but it seems to me like there's a very strong chance that the risk-adjusted value of going through Aeroplan/RewardOps is likely to be well under the $1,000 guaranteed with Rakuten.

Last edited by Adam Smith; Nov 25, 2022 at 10:57 pm Reason: Fixed formatting
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