I have a flight in January that leaves JFK at 2:30 pm. I will fly to JFK from Atlanta that morning to connect. Would you take an initial flight that arrives in JFK at 12:15 pm, or the one that arrives at 10:30 am, thus playing it very safe? I'm thinking not so much about minimum connection times as I am about possible incoming flight delays.

Update: I'm on different airlines and different tickets, so I need to claim my bags and recheck them. If I miss the 2:30 flight the next one is the following day. My choices for later flights are with Delta or JetBlue. Earlier flight is Delta.

Thanks.