Flying UA101 IAH-SYD this Friday evening. We have very close to zero chance of clearing to PY or J unless a ton of people misconnect.

As of right now, there is availability in the fare class we booked to fly Saturday 11/19 instead via LAX on UA839. Upgrade list became visible earlier this evening and shows 9/48 available in J, zero available in PY. If we switched into this flight we would rank #7 and #8. Make the change with one day delay for the chance of the upgrade? or take the loss and suck it out in economy on the direct flight?