Originally Posted by
intuition
I think we've beaten this dead horse quite a few times. It comes down to two major opinions:
a) "it is better, because I personally have had like 150% success rate and I don't mind getting upgraded at T-37 as I don't care if I fly in Y or J"
b) "it is worse, because I won't fly longhaul Y and I need confirmed upgrades at time of purchase or I won't fly AY at all. Therefore I have no idea what my personal success rate would be, I just let my vouchers/points/membership expire"
Finnair prefers their members to be in segment a)
I don't see that changing anytime soon.
I have observed on shorthauls, where U has been more plentiful that they now kill almost all U 7 days before departure. When they can't sell those upgrades, they process the waitlist at around T-39. Those seats that are still open after that are not returned to U, they are just kept as unsold.
For my usual shorthaul route, there is usually plenty of U space until right before departure. For example tomorrow:
J4 C4 D4 R4 I0 U4 Y9 B9 H9 K9 M0 L0 V0 S0 N0 Q0 O0 Z0 G0 X9
Sunday
J9 C9 D9 R0 I0 U9 Y9 B9 H0 K0 M0 L0 V0 S0 N0 Q0 O0 Z0 G0 X9